If Jofra Archer bowls against Australia like he did versus New Zealand in the second one-day international, then England might win The Ashes - but if the team put in a similar batting performance they probably won't.
Let's start with the positive.
Archer was superb in Hamilton on Wednesday, recording figures of 3-23 from 10 overs with 51 dot balls and four maidens. He topped 90mph and averaged around 88.
A sizzling display began in the first over of the Black Caps' run chase, a wicket-maiden, as the paceman cut Will Young in half third ball and then trapped him lbw for a duck next up.
The great Kane Willamson was welcomed to the crease with some lavish seam movement and a second-delivery lbw appeal. Too high, mercifully for New Zealand.
The movement, the bounce, the speed, the hostility continued during a five-over opening spell in which Archer only shipped eight runs, seven off the bat and a wide.
He came close to nicking off Wiliamson as well, only for the ball to drop short of wicketkeeper Buttler after the batter flirted at a delivery that came in to him.
Archer was marginally looser in his next set of five and his wickets of Rachin Ravindra and Michal Bracewell were not from great deliveries, but the sight of the quick steaming in and having batters hopping around was a real Ashes boost for England.
White-ball captain Harry Brook said of Archer: "He's awesome to watch, an X-factor player - 90-95mph and hoops both ways. Everyone loves watching him."
Archer broke onto the Test scene against Australia at home in 2019, taking 22 wickets in four Tests, including six-fors at Headingley and The Kia Oval, and hitting Steve Smith during a searing spell at Lord's.
That knock to the noggin ruled Smith out of the following Test in Leeds and left him feeling like he'd had "a dozen beers".
A few beers may have been downed by Australia fans on Wednesday as they toasted Smith's hundred for New South Wales ahead of this year's Ashes - just as England supporters were weeping into their morning cuppas after another abject batting display in New Zealand., after, when Brook's 135 from 101 balls accounted for 60.53 per cent of the runs scored.
We have been denied Smith vs Archer in Test cricket for seven years, with injury ruling the England seamer out of the 4-0 defeat in Australia in 2021/22 and 2-2 draw at home in 2023.
Now, though, the rivalry is set to be renewed. If Archer comes out on top, the tourists' hopes of claiming the urn for the first time in over a decade will increase dramatically.
Moving on, though, to the negative from the second ODI in New Zealand: the batting.
If there was some mitigation for England plummeting to 10-4 and 56-6 in Mount Maunganui at the weekend - the degrees of swing and seam in the first powerplay were 1.31 and 0.89 respectively - then there probably wasn't much excuse in Hamilton. Swing in that period dropped to 0.69 degrees, seam movement dwindled to 0.57.
Ashes certainties Ben Duckett, Jamie Smith and Joe Root respectively nicked off, spooned to backward point and glanced down the leg side inside 12 overs, while possible Test starter Jacob Bethell cracked down deep square leg's throat in the 17th, one ball after drinks.
Brook - out to a belting catch from Young - had urged his batters to "go harder" after Sunday's shocker but sometimes it makes sense to go smarter. Bethell may be thinking just that, particularly with an Ashes spot potentially up for grabs.
Out to a jaffa from Zak Foulkes in Tauranga in the first ODI, this tame exit off Nathan Smith - Foulkes the catcher - leaves Bethell with one more ODI innings and then the Ashes warm-up against England Lions next month to press his claims to oust Ollie Pope at No 3.
We maybe should not read too much into England's ODI batting woes with the Ashes in mind, for this is a format the team are currently struggling to get to grips with: thirteen defeats in their last 18 matches, regularly bowled out, eighth in the world rankings.
For The Ashes, Smith will drop to No 7 while Zak Crawley and - if fit - Ben Stokes - will return. Pope, too, looks more and more likely to stick at No 3 with every passing Bethell innings. Test cricket is England's bread and butter, the arena they feel most comfortable in.
But the problem is that these ODIs are the Ashes preparation. Gone are the days of a host of tour matches, like England enjoyed in 2010/11 before they thumped Australia 3-1. The packed schedule means acclimatisation is largely a relic.
That hasn't overly affected England under captain Stokes and head Brendon McCullum, with the team winning the first Test of every away series since that pair took charge - twice in Pakistan, twice in New Zealand and once in India, albeit that they ended up losing 4-1 in India in 2024 and then 2-1 in Pakistan later that same year.
So perhaps prep is overrated, especially if you have Archer in your XI. But these batting foibles will not have gone unnoticed by Australia.
All times UK and Ireland
All times UK and Ireland
